The GutCheck Guide
GutCheck is a free, 60-second daily test of your calibration — how well the confidence you feel matches how often you are actually right. Most quizzes reward raw knowledge. GutCheck rewards self-knowledge: knowing what you know, and admitting what you do not. Every day everyone gets the same set of ten true-or-false statements drawn from general knowledge — geography, science, history, language, nature, math, technology and the arts. You answer each one and, just as importantly, say how sure you are.
How to play
First, read a statement and decide whether it is true or false. Then slide the confidence bar from 50% — a pure coin-flip guess — up to 100%, dead certain. Being 60% sure and right is honest; being 100% sure and wrong is expensive. Do that for all ten statements, which takes about a minute, and then read your verdict: a Brier-based calibration score from 0 to 100, your accuracy shown next to your average confidence, a calibration curve, and a one-word archetype — Overconfident Oracle, Humble Genius, Well-Calibrated, or Wildcard.
Here is the twist that makes GutCheck different from ordinary trivia: a perfectly calibrated player who scores 5 out of 10 beats an overconfident one who scores 8 out of 10 while claiming certainty. The gap between what you claim and what turns out to be true is the thing we actually measure.
Tips for an honest score
- Use the whole slider. Save 100% for facts you would bet your house on and you will rarely be burned by it.
- Treat 50% as "no idea." It costs you nothing to admit a guess; pretending to know does.
- Judge your pattern, not one bad day. Ten questions is a small sample — play a few days to see whether you lean over- or under-confident.
- Beware the topics you love. People are most overconfident exactly where they feel most expert.
- Do not chase the score by hedging everything to 50%. Good calibration also means being confident when you should be — under-confidence is a miss too.
- Read the curve, not just the archetype. It shows precisely where your confidence and reality start to part ways.
Frequently asked questions
Is this a scientific test? No. GutCheck is entertainment — a carefully built toy, not a psychometric instrument. Take the verdict in good humor.
Are the questions the same for everyone? Yes. Each UTC day has one shared set of ten, and sets rotate without repeating, so you and your friends can compare the same run. The bank holds well over a month of sets, and every statement in it is used once before any of them comes round again.
Can I just answer "true" to everything? It will not save you. The bank carries a deliberate mix of true statements and plausible-sounding false ones, so there is no safe default to lean on — and answering with high confidence on statements you have not actually thought about is precisely what the calibration score is built to catch.
Do I need an account? No. There is nothing to sign up for, and your results stay in your own browser.
What does "overconfident" actually mean? Your average confidence is higher than your accuracy. Most people are overconfident — the typical person is about 72% sure but only 60% correct.
Can I play more than once a day? There is one fresh set per day, which keeps everyone's comparison fair. Come back tomorrow for the next ten.